In Italy, there are approximately 9.5 million unoccupied homes, yet for many people, finding a suitable house remains challenging. How is this possible? And what will happen in the coming years, especially in cities like Milan?

At first glance, it might seem contradictory: if there are so many unoccupied homes, why is there still talk of difficulties in buying and renting?

The answer is more complex than it seems. It's not just about the number of available properties, but also where they are located, how much they cost, and how suitable they are for families' needs.

This issue is highlighted in the study "House and Families in Italy towards 2050," conducted by Cresme and presented during the initiative The House of the Future – Scenarios for Living, promoted by Fillea Cgil and Spi Cgil.

The analysis describes how the Italian real estate market, housing demand, and family needs might change over the next twenty-five years.

How many empty houses are there in Italy? ISTAT data

According to ISTAT data for the period 2021-2023, Italy's housing stock exceeds 35.6 million homes.

Of these, over 26 million are occupied by residents, while about 9.5 million fall into the category of unoccupied homes.

But beware: this doesn't mean that 9.5 million houses are empty, abandoned, or immediately available on the real estate market.

The statistical definition includes both unoccupied homes and those used by people who are not registered as residents. This category can also include second homes and properties used occasionally.

The number of unoccupied homes represents a significant part of Italy's residential stock but does not automatically correspond to the number of houses that could be bought or rented.

This is where one of the central issues of the real estate market arises: having many homes does not necessarily mean having accessible and suitable houses for those seeking them.

Why is finding a home difficult even with millions of unoccupied homes?

The Cresme study addresses this apparent paradox by comparing the evolution of families and the availability of homes in different Italian territories.

According to projections reported by Il Sole 24 Ore, between 2026 and 2050, about 3.71 million new households, equivalent to 37% of those considered in the scenario, might not find a home compatible with their needs or financial means.

It is important to note that this is a long-term projection based on the study's hypotheses and not an already observed fact.

The anticipated difficulties would mainly concern two situations.

1. Houses too expensive relative to income

For about 1.77 million households, according to the Cresme scenario, the problem could be economic: income would not be sufficient to access the homes offered by the market.

This is the issue of housing affordability, the actual possibility of bearing the costs necessary to buy or rent a home.

The price of the property or the rental fee are not the only aspects to consider. A family's budget is also affected by condominium fees, utilities, any work needed, and, in the case of purchase with financing, the mortgage payment.

2. Available houses, but in the wrong locations

For another 1.94 million households, the difficulty might mainly depend on the geographical distribution of homes.

A house may be available but located far from the workplace, services, or family networks.

Consider, for example, someone working in Milan seeking a well-connected home, or a family needing to live close to schools, transport, and daily services.

The presence of unused properties in one area does not automatically solve the housing demand in another.

The problem, therefore, is not just how many houses exist, but how well the real estate supply meets people's needs.

Fewer inhabitants, but more families: how is the demand for houses changing?

There's another particularly interesting fact.

According to figures reported by the Cresme study, between 2019 and 2024, Italy lost about 698,000 residents, but during the same period, the number of families increased by about 822,000 units.

Simultaneously, the number of homes grew by about 508,000 units.

How can this dynamic be explained?

The population and the number of families do not necessarily move in the same direction. Even when the population decreases, households can increase because the number of people composing them changes.

Among the demographic transformations to consider are the presence of people living alone, the aging population, and the formation of smaller households.

A city might have fewer inhabitants but continue to need a high number of homes.

According to the scenario developed by Cresme, the number of Italian families could continue to grow until 2037, then begin a phase of reduction.

Again, this is a forecast, not a future trend already certain.

Real estate market Milan: 145,000 more families expected by 2050

Demographic transformations will not affect all territories in the same way.

The Cresme study identifies some provinces where the number of households could continue to increase even after 2035.

Among these are Milan, Brescia, Bologna, and Parma.

In particular, for the province of Milan, an increase of about 145,000 families is expected over the twenty-five years considered, up to 2050.

For the province of Brescia, the estimated growth is nearly 51,000 families.

These are territorial projections, not already verified increases. Moreover, the data related to Milan concerns the entire province and not just the main municipality.

These numbers suggest that the Milan area could continue to experience significant housing demand in the coming decades.

However, this does not mean that property prices will automatically rise or that all areas will follow the same trend.

The market's evolution will depend on numerous factors, including residential supply, incomes, access to credit conditions, connectivity, and the characteristics of different neighborhoods and municipalities.

Milan and its hinterland: the role of connections and services

When searching for a home in the Milan area, the comparison does not necessarily concern only the price per square meter.

The location, proximity to public transport, presence of schools and services, and the time needed to reach work can also influence the choice.

For this reason, those considering a home in Milan might also consider neighboring municipalities such as Sesto San Giovanni, Cologno Monzese, Brugherio, or Cernusco sul Naviglio.

There is no one-size-fits-all solution: each area has different characteristics, and convenience depends on personal needs.

The forecasts on family growth make it even more important to observe the local real estate market, without stopping at national averages alone.

Inherited homes: property ownership could change in the coming years

Another transformation analyzed by the study concerns the transfer of properties between generations.

According to Cresme estimates, between 2026 and 2050, about 13.7 million inheritance cases involving properties could be registered.

Again, this figure is a projection, not the exact number of properties that will be sold or placed on the market.

An inheritance does not necessarily entail the sale of the property.

Heirs can decide to keep the property, use it, rent it out, or sell it, depending on the circumstances.

The forecast highlights how generational transfer could become significant in managing Italy's real estate assets.

Some existing homes might require maintenance, renovation, or adaptation to the needs of new owners and users.

Therefore, it will be important to evaluate not only the commercial value of properties but also their conditions and practical usability.

Houses and population aging: how will housing needs change?

The future of housing will not depend solely on young couples and families looking for a first home.

The Cresme study also focuses on the aging population.

According to its projections, people living alone aged 75 and over could increase from about 2.95 million in 2025 to 4.67 million in 2050.

This change could make the availability of homes suitable for different life stages increasingly important.

Consider the presence of elevators, the absence of architectural barriers, and easy access to healthcare services and neighborhood shops.

A home that perfectly meets the needs of a young family might not be as functional for an elderly person living alone.

The quality of living will also depend on the ability to adapt existing real estate to demographic changes.

What does all this mean for those looking to buy or sell a home in Milan?

The projections up to 2050 do not allow us to determine what the price of an apartment will be in ten or twenty years, nor do they guarantee an increase in property values.

However, they offer a useful perspective for understanding some transformations already underway.

For those looking to buy a home, it will be important to evaluate not only the property's characteristics but also the area in which it is located, connections, available services, and management costs.

For those considering selling, knowing the demand characteristics in their area remains crucial for defining a marketing strategy consistent with the market.

Property enhancement can also play an important role, especially when conditions and space distribution do not fully meet potential buyers' needs.

It's not about predicting the future with certainty but making more informed decisions based on the information available today.

Conclusion: the future of housing will not depend solely on the number of homes

The data and forecasts presented in November 2026 highlight a fundamental issue: the real estate market is not just about buildings, but primarily about people and their needs.

Italy has a very large housing stock, but the distribution of properties, costs, and family transformations can create imbalances between supply and demand.

Milan and Lombardy represent a particularly interesting observatory, as some provinces might continue to see household growth even when the national demographic picture begins to change.

The challenge in the coming years will be to understand how to better utilize existing properties, make them more functional, and promote a housing supply consistent with the needs of different territories.

Because a house must not only exist: it must be in the right place, meet the needs of its inhabitants, and be economically accessible.

At REMAX Associati Real Estate, we follow the evolution of the real estate market in Milan and surrounding areas to help buyers and sellers interpret changes and make more informed real estate decisions.

Sources

1. Il Sole 24 Ore

Flavia Landolfi, “House, by 2050 for 3.7 million families housing too expensive or in the wrong place,” page 10. In-depth analysis of the Cresme-Fillea Cgil report and projections related to families, housing, and property inheritances.

2. Fillea Cgil

“The House of the Future – Scenarios for Living.” Presentation of the study “House and Families in Italy towards 2050,” conducted by Cresme.

3. ISTAT

“Occupied Homes – Years 2021-2023.” Data on Italy's housing stock and occupied and unoccupied homes.

4. ISTAT

“Permanent Census 2021: Characteristics of Homes.” In-depth analysis of the territorial distribution of real estate and the statistical definition of unoccupied housing.

5. ISPRA

“Soil Consumption, Territorial Dynamics, and Ecosystem Services – Report 2026.” Data on soil consumption and opportunities for land recovery and regeneration.

Article updated to November 11, 2026. The estimates for the period 2026-2050 represent forecast scenarios and not certain results. Data on unoccupied homes refer to ISTAT 2021-2023 surveys published in 2026.